# 401076 Introduction To Epidemiology Assessment 1 Answer

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## Question :

The University of Western Sydney

School of Science and Health

Introduction to Epidemiology (401076)

ASSIGNMENT 1

This assignment is based on the learning objectives and concepts in in weeks 1 to 3 (not including measures of association). There are a total of 60 marks and this assignment will contribute 20% towards the total assessment for this subject.

Your assignment should be typed, with adequate space left between questions. Assignments should be submitted via vUWS (see specific instructions relating to Assignment 1 on vUWS).

Be as brief as possible in your answers, and use the number of marks for a question as a guide to how much to write.

No answers need to be longer than a few short sentences or short paragraphs. No need for referencing

(1a) “In June 2009, a study was conducted to determine the prevalence of flu in health professionals who had patient contact and worked in three Melbourne hospitals, Of the 165 participants, three were serologically confirmed flu cases. “

1. What was the prevalence of flu among health professionals in Melbourne? [2 Marks]

“ (1b) In December 2009, another study was conducted to determine the prevalence of flue among health professionals with patient contact, working in three Melbourne hospitals. Health professionals were asked whether they had experienced flu-like symptoms during the previous winter (June-August). Of the 165 participants, 25 responded in ‘yes’ to this question.”

(b) What was the prevalence of flu according to this question? [2 marks]

“(1c) The average duration of flu is estimated as two weeks (14 days). Can you estimate the incidence rate of flu in the winter season for June 2009? A hint: when computing, you need to use the decimal version of the prevalence” (4 marks)

“(1d) In the same study of flu among health professionals in Melbourne started in June 2009 (see a) the participants were followed up to the end of the winter season. Within this time frame, there were 22 people serologically confirmed flu cases. What was the incidence of flu in the 2009 winter season (June August)?” (4 marks)

(1e) What is the difference between the incidence rates you have computed  in 1c, and 1d [2 marks]

Question 2

This figure present the occurrence of disease in 7 individuals who were followed for 7 years.

Question 3: (16 points)

“The following table presents hypothetical data of the occurrence of suicide in men between 2006 -2010 (5 years) in two cites and the population size of each age group over this period.”

 City A City B WHO Standard population Age groups cases Pop. Size Cases Pop. Size 15-34 437 258,264 274 275,537 32,230 35-54 351 243,922 215 260,395 25,150 55+ 221 196,649 140 167,698 15,500

1. “Calculate the crude rates of suicide per 100,000 men in each city. Compare the results in your own world.” [4 marks]
2. Calculate the age –specific rates in City A and City B per 100,000 men and summarise the results succinctly [4 marks]
3. “Calculate the direct standardised incidence rates of suicide for men living in city A and in city B according to the world standard population (given in the last column).  Compare the two age-standardised rates and interpret your findings.” [4 marks]

d)” Based on the data you have just calculated would you say that standardisation was important to understand the differences in suicide between the two cities? Justify” [4marks]

“A standardised mortality rate (SMR) of 0.70 would mean:

1. The observed deaths are similar to the expected deaths
2. The observed deaths are more than the expected deaths
3. The observed deaths are less than the expected deaths
4. None of the above as this statistic describes the proportion dead from the overall population”

Question 5:

“Investigators wishes to examine the relationship between coffee consumption and risk of throat cancer.”

1. What will be the most practical study design to explore this question and why? [2 Marks]
2. Assuming you are one of the investigators – please provide a short description who will be the participants in the study and what information you will collect to answer your research question   [4 Marks] No more than 150 word
3. What other study design you can consider for this research question and explain why you chose it[4 Marks]

Question 6:

“In 2010 the Road and Trafic Authority completed the construction of new cycleway between Guilford and Cabramatta. A year before the completion of the cycleway the Epidemiology department of the Area Health District (AHD) randomly sample 1500 people aged 18 to 65 years living in Guilford and Cabramatta and invited them to take a survey, which included question on cycling and other recreational activity.  In 2013 the AHD repeated the same survey on a random sample of another 1,500 people aged 18 to 65. They found that the prevalence of cycling in 2009 was 5% and in 2013 it was 8% ”.

1. What do you think was the question or hypothesis that the Area Health District try to answer” (no more than 30 words) [2 marks
2. “What study type/design the paragraph described and why do you think this is the type (in other words justify your answer from the text, no more than 60 words!!)” [4 marks]
3. “Think about a different study design that can answer the same research question or hypothesis and describe succinctly what this study would involve”  [ no more than 100 words] [ 4 marks]

ASSIGNMENT 1

Question1:

1.  The study was conducted among 165 participants, where three people have confirmed flue cases. So, the “prevalence of flue  among the health professionals in Melbourne” is  :

“(The number of people with Flue/The number of people participated) * 100”

This is,

(3/165)*100 or, 1.81818181818 %.

Answer: The “prevalence of flue among health professionals in Melbourne” is: 1.81818181818 %.

B)As per the second study conducted, Over 165 participants, 25 people say that they had flu symptoms last winter.

So, in this case, “the prevalence of flue is (25/165)*100” which is 15.1515151515 %.

Ans: “Relevance of flue”= 15.1515151515 %.

C) “The average duration of the flue” is estimated as two weeks. Therefore, in this situation, “the incidence rate of the flue” is:  We know that,

“Prevalence= Incidents* Duration”

Here, the Prevalence is 15.1515151515 and the duration is 2 weeks. So, the Incident is, “Duration /Prelevence” which is 2/15.1515151515 or, 0.132. Hence the “Incident rate” is 13.2%.

Ans: “The incident rate” is 13.2%.

D) In the next study which continues to the end of the season, 22 peoples have also confirmed the flue. Therefore, in this case, the “incident rate” of the risk is:

“The number of new peoples / the people at risk”

Which is (22/165) = 0.13333333333 or 13.333333333%.

Ans: In this study, “the incident risk” is:   13.333333333 %.

E) The “incidence rate” calculated in 1) c) was 13.2% wherein 1) D) it become 13.333333333 %. So, the difference between them is (13.333333333 - 13.2) or, 0.133333333.

4) B) “The observed death is more than the expected deaths”

Question 2:

a) As we know, the “incidence of the disease means”, “the number of people developing the decease/ the number of years”. Which is, 6/7 or, 0.85?

Ans: The “incidence of decease” is 0.85.

b) As we know, the “cumulative incidence of the disease” = “number of new incident/number of individuals”= 3/7 which is 0.43

Ans: The “cumulative incidence of the disease” = 0.43.

C) As we know “the average duration” equals to “Total duration of the sessions / the number of sessions”. As per this question, it is (7+7+2+7+3+2+2)/7 or, 30/7 or, 4.28.

Ans: “The average Duration” = 4.28

Question 3:

Solution,

FOR CITY A

“The percentage suicide cases of men from age group 15-34 on population 258,264 of number of cases 437 is 0.1692067032 %”

“The percentage of  suicide cases of men from age group 35-54 on population size of  243,922 of number of cases 351 is 0.1438984593435606”

“The percentage suicide cases of men from age group 55+ on population 196,649 of number of cases 221 is 0.1443831519600478”

“The total population of the city A is 698,835”,

“The total Suicide cases of city A is 1009”

“The Mean Percentage” of suicide cases of city A is 0.1443831519600478 %

“The number of Death due to Suicide” by individuals of age group 15-34 per 100000 men is 1692.067032

“The number of Death due to Suicide” by individuals of age group 35-54 per 100000 men is 1438.9845934356

“The number of Death due to Suicide” by individuals of age group 55+ per 100000 men is 1123.82976775879

“The Mean number of Death due to Suicide” by individual Per 100000 men is 4,255”

FOR CITY B

“The percentage suicide cases” of men from age group 15-34 on population 275537 of number of cases 274 is 0.0994421801790685 %

“The percentage of suicide cases” of men from age group 35-54 on population size of 275537 of number of cases 215 is 0.0780294479507289 % %”

“The percentage suicide cases” of men from age group 55+ on population 275537 of number of cases 140 is 0.0508098730841956 %

“The total population of the city B is 826611,”

“The total Suicide cases of city B is 629”

“The Mean Percentage of suicide cases of city B is 0.0760938337379977 %”

“The number of Death due to Suicide by individuals of age group 15-34 per 100000 men is 994.421801790685”

“The number of Death due to Suicide by individuals of age group 35-54 per 100000 men is 780.294479507289”

“The number of Death due to Suicide by individuals of age group 55+ per 100000 men is 508.098730841956”

“The Mean number of Death due to Suicide by individual per 100000 men is 2282.815012”

Evaluation

Comparing the “Suicide cases” of both the City A and City B, the “crude rate” of suicide per 100000 people in the city is 4255 and 2283 respectively for City A and City B. Therefore it is evident that City A has more suicide rates as compared to City B.  This indicates a clear example of “Suicide Epidemiology” and should be taken into notice as soon as possible (Fréling, et al. 2015).

(b)   [Refer to Table 1]

FOR CITY A

“The percentage suicide cases” of men from age group 15-34 on population 258,264 of number of cases 437 is 0.1692067032 %

“The percentage of suicide cases” of men from age group 35-54 on population size of 243,922 of number of cases 351 is 0.1438984593435606”

“The percentage suicide cases” of men from age group 55+ on population 196,649 of number of cases 221 is 0.1443831519600478”

“The total population of the city A is 698,835”,

“The total Suicide cases of city A is 1009”

“The Mean Percentage of suicide cases of city A is 0.1443831519600478 %”

FOR CITY B

“The percentage suicide cases” of men from age group 15-34 on population 275537 of number of cases 274 is 0.0994421801790685 %

“The percentage of suicide cases” of men from age group 35-54 on population size of 275537 of number of cases 215 is 0.0780294479507289 %”

“The percentage suicide cases” of men from age group 55+ on population 275537 of number of cases 140 is 0.0508098730841956 %”

“The total population of the city B is 826611,”

“The total Suicide cases of city B is 629”

“The Mean Percentage of suicide cases of city B is 0.0760938337379977 %”

Summary

The “suicide percentage” for men from age group 15-34 on city A is found to be 0.1692067032 %” and in City B 0.0994421801790685 %”There is a significant difference in the percentage of suicides among this age group where City A is more. “The suicide percentage” for men from age group 35-54 on city A is found to be “0.1438984593435606” and in City B “0.0780294479507289 %” There is a significant difference in the percentage of suicides among this age group where City A is more just like the previous result. The suicide percentage for men from age group 55+ on city A is found to be “0.1438984593435606 and in City B 0.0780294479507289 %” There is a significant difference in the percentage of suicides among this age group where City A high (Biroulet, 2015).

c)

“The expected Death rate of City A is 11003.1 and the expected death of City 2 is 5962”

Question 4:

B) “The observed death is more than the expected deaths”.

Question 5:

1. If the investigators want to examine this relationship, then at first, they need to search “throat cancer” patients from the “cancer” hospital than the other type of “cancer” sufferers. After that, they need to examine the consumption rate of coffee they take. The advantage of this study is: the examiners will be able to gather the most relevant data at a short period of time and in an inexpensive manner (Nakamura, et al. 2018).
2. If I was one of the investigators then, I will make “cancer” patients as participants and divide them into two categories, the first one will be the “Throat cancer” patient and the second team for other ones. Then I will calculate the “coffee consumption” of them. Because this study, design will help me to gather data in an easy way. After performing the whole study I will tally between other “cancer” patient’s “coffee consumption” rate and “throat cancer” patients “coffee consumption” rate. It will help me to get more accurate information.
3. If I was a researcher then another study design I can consider is developing a list of people who take more coffee in a day and will tally there coffee taking rate with “throat cancer” patient’s coffee taking rate. It will help me to know more about the trend and the facts of the relation between “coffee taking rate” and “throat cancer”. As per my view, this study case will generate an accurate answer to my question.

Question 6

a)

The “Area Health District” tries to prove there that there is a “3 percent increase in cycling rates” between the “age of 18-65 years” living in “Guildford and cabramatta” is based on their data “sampled from 1500 people”. Their hypothesis on “how the prevalence of cycling can be increased by construction of cycle way” is what the “Area Health District” tries to answer. (Winer, et al. 2013).

b)

The “Study Conducted” in this Paragraph is a “case controlled study” based on the “outcomes of the people” over time. The “Area Health District (AHD)” selected people with a specific result and interviewed them to check their previous data record to comply with their previous experiment. Now after “construction of the cycle way”, another Experiment was conducted in which the interview data was collected and evaluated, compared with the previous experiment.

c)

In this experiment, the “systematic review” assessment could have been followed in this research because, some specific criteria would have been followed before the experiment which includes the proper Descriptive finding and older research studies would have been considered. The data chart of other cycle way research would have a “dynamic influence” to the study conducted .In this “methodology”, the 1500 individuals would have to go through certain procedures and trials which would result in their health data (Kim, 2007). It is found that their health and fitness data before the cycle way construction would have been considered that might result to changes in the statistical data

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